Germany Warns US Tariffs Could Hit Exporters in 2027World

Speaking in Berlin during the presentation of the five-member council’s annual report on Wednesday, Felbermayr said the pressure could build quickly. “This could come to a head as early as the beginning of next year, particularly with regard to China, as certain deadlines are set to expire,” he said.

The warning matters because the United States is Germany’s most important export market outside Europe. German manufacturers selling machinery, cars, chemicals and industrial equipment into the US have already spent the past year adjusting to higher American tariffs, and any further escalation would squeeze margins and orders.

US market cooling could follow AI-driven boost

Felbermayr noted that German exports to the United States had actually improved over the last two or three months, helped in part by strong global demand linked to the artificial intelligence boom. Factories supplying AI infrastructure, data-centre equipment and related technology have benefited from the surge in spending.

But that improvement may not last, he cautioned. “For the German export sector, this means that the US market — which had shown improvement over the last two or three months, with Germany partly benefiting from the AI boom — could see a cooling off,” Felbermayr said.

Analysts say the risk is not only about tariffs on German goods directly. If Washington tightens trade measures against China early next year, the knock-on effects could ripple through global supply chains, raising costs and disrupting orders for European firms that sit in the middle of those networks.

Gridlock may push trade policy to executive action

One reason the midterm result offers little comfort to exporters is the shape of American politics after the vote. With Congress divided, major trade decisions may increasingly be taken through presidential executive orders rather than legislation, making policy harder to predict and harder to challenge.

German economic institutes increasingly view the shift towards “America First” industrial policy as a lasting change rather than a passing phase, according to the council’s assessment. That has pushed calls for German and European exporters to spread their risks, diversify into new markets and build more resilient supply chains.

For now, the adviser’s message is a warning rather than a forecast of a specific tariff rise. Felbermayr did not name which measures might change or predict an exact increase. But his central point was clear: German exporters should not expect the midterms to bring relief, and they should prepare for a bumpier trade environment at the start of next year.