Pakistan GDP Growth Revised Down to 3.65% for FY26Business

The committee attributed the downward adjustment to a mild slowdown in the industrial and services sectors. For FY26, agriculture growth was revised upward to 3.50 per cent from 2.89 per cent, while industry was lowered to 3.34 per cent from 3.51 per cent and services to 3.81 per cent from 4.09 per cent.

Within agriculture, important crops improved from 0.65 per cent to 1.59 per cent on the back of wheat and maize, while other crops surged from 2.43 per cent to 4.28 per cent, helped by higher production of pulses (6.3pc), fruits (1.3pc), tomatoes (44pc), oilseeds (5.4pc) and green fodder (2.4pc). Livestock growth eased slightly to 3.71 per cent, while forestry expanded by 10.80 per cent and fishing by 1.39 per cent.

Industry’s weaker reading reflects a decline in large-scale manufacturing from 6.11 per cent to 5.01 per cent. Automobiles posted a striking 57.77 per cent expansion, but pharmaceuticals, iron and steel, chemicals and leather products all contracted.

The final quarter slowed sharply: GDP grew just 2 per cent in Q4 of FY26, far below the 6.07 per cent a year earlier, as industry contracted 4.70 per cent on a 33.19 per cent fall in electricity, gas and water supply. Earlier quarters were revised upward: Q1 to 3.89 per cent, Q2 to 4.31 per cent and Q3 to 4.42 per cent.

The services sector, the largest part of the economy, saw growth trimmed to 3.81 per cent. Wholesale and retail trade fell to 2.37 per cent from 3.71 per cent on weaker manufacturing and imports, but transportation and storage improved to 3.23 per cent, information and communication jumped to 9.53 per cent and finance and insurance rose to 4.23 per cent.

The committee also revised FY25 growth down to 3.11 per cent from 3.18 per cent. The NAC’s 3.65 per cent estimate sits close to the outlook of multilateral lenders: the International Monetary Fund has projected 3.6 per cent, while the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank each expect 3.7 per cent, and the State Bank of Pakistan sees growth near 3.7 per cent.