Marriage registrations in China have fallen to their lowest level in 18 years, with just 4.65 million couples tying the knot in the first nine months of 2026, according to official figures that have renewed concern about the country’s shrinking population.
Data from China’s Ministry of Civil Affairs, published this week, shows registrations fell by 504,000 couples, or 9.8 percent, compared with the same period last year, when 5.15 million couples married. Local outlet Yicai reported that the nine-month total was the weakest since the quarterly series began in 2008. During the same period, 2.08 million couples filed for divorce.
The figures were reported by Reuters on Friday, and they point to a demographic challenge that has been building for more than a decade. Because childbearing in China remains closely tied to formal marriage, the steady slide in weddings is seen as a warning sign for future birth rates in a country whose population has already been shrinking for several years.
China’s marriage numbers have been falling almost continuously since they peaked at 13.47 million in 2013. Registrations slipped below 10 million in 2019 and dropped to 6.11 million in 2024, the lowest annual total since records began in 1980. There was a brief recovery last year, when 6.76 million couples married, up 10.76 percent on 2024, but the latest figures suggest that rebound has not lasted.
Analysts commonly point to structural and economic pressures behind the weaker appetite for marriage, including a shrinking cohort of people reaching typical marrying age, the high cost of housing and raising children, and uncertainty about jobs and incomes. Young people in China’s big cities in particular are marrying later, or not at all, and the trend has persisted despite repeated efforts by the authorities to encourage family formation.
Local governments have rolled out a range of incentives, including cash payments and travel subsidies for newlyweds, childcare subsidies and tax breaks, and in some places limits on the traditional gift money exchanged at weddings. The central government has also eased marriage registration rules, allowing couples to register anywhere in the country without presenting a household registration booklet.
Even so, the numbers have kept falling. The first quarter of this year recorded 1.70 million marriages, down 6.2 percent on a year earlier, and the first half totalled 3.28 million, down 7.46 percent. The third-quarter figures now confirm that the decline has deepened through the year, with the nine-month total falling below even the 4.75 million recorded in the same period of 2024.
The demographic stakes are high. China has recorded four consecutive years of population decline, alongside record-low birth figures, while its society ages rapidly and its workforce shrinks. Officials have warned that fewer marriages today mean fewer births tomorrow, adding pressure to pension and healthcare systems that must support a growing number of older citizens.
For now, the ministry’s data offers little sign of a turnaround. Unless the trend reverses, analysts say China faces a longer period of demographic strain, with the marriage slump feeding directly into the debate over how the world’s second-largest economy supports families and sustains growth in the years ahead.
