Brazil Heads to October 25 Runoff After Flávio Bolsonaro Edges Lula in First RoundWorld

The outcome defied most pre-election polling, which had shown Lula holding a narrow single-digit lead in the final weeks of the campaign. Bolsonaro instead delivered commanding performances in the country’s three most populous states: he led Lula 52 percent to 38 percent in São Paulo, 50 percent to 43 percent in Minas Gerais — long regarded as Brazil’s electoral bellwether — and 53 percent to 39 percent in his home state of Rio de Janeiro.

Lula maintained his traditional dominance across the northeastern states of Bahia, Pernambuco and Ceará, but those margins proved insufficient to offset the deficit in the south and southeast, which together account for nearly half of the national electorate.

Around 160 million voters were eligible to take part in Sunday’s general election, which also decided congressional, gubernatorial and senate contests. Voting is compulsory for most adults in the world’s fifth-largest country, and Brazil’s electronic voting system allowed the count to progress rapidly after polling stations closed.

Bolsonaro, of the Liberal Party, voted in Rio de Janeiro and had expressed confidence of winning outright in the first round. He told reporters that Brazil needed change and that he wanted to “free the Brazilian people,” according to Al Jazeera.

<h2>A stark choice on October 25</h2> Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth term. He governed Brazil from 2003 to 2010 and returned to the presidency in 2023 after a remarkable political comeback that included 580 days in prison on corruption convictions later annulled by the Supreme Court in 2021, restoring his political rights.

Jair Bolsonaro, who lost the 2022 election to Lula, was subsequently convicted and barred from seeking office before 2030. He is serving a 27-year prison sentence over a plot to overturn the 2022 result, and endorsed his eldest son&#8217;s candidacy.

Analysts described the runoff as a defining choice for Brazil and Latin America: a growing conservative bloc aligned with US President Donald Trump, or the continuation of Lula&#8217;s multipolar foreign policy. With most eliminated first-round candidates coming from the right, Bolsonaro may find it easier to consolidate additional support — while Lula must now reach beyond his base to voters who backed defeated rivals.

The winner&#8217;s term is scheduled to begin on January 5, 2027.