New Zealanders are voting today in a general election so close that the final polls cannot separate the two main parties, with Prime Minister Christopher Luxon insisting he can still see a path back to government. The final 1News-Verian poll, released on Tuesday, put Luxon’s National Party on 30 per cent and Labour on 29 per cent, a gap of one point that is, in practical terms, a dead heat.
“We’re actually in a very strong position,” Luxon said, adding: “we can see a path forward to reelection.” He argued that a first-term government consolidating its base vote after difficult decisions was in a strong place. Labour leader Chris Hipkins, who is seeking to return to the office he lost three years ago, said the prime minister’s first priority should be making sure the economy moves in the right direction.
The smaller parties hold the key to what happens next. The final poll put the Greens on 16 per cent, ACT on 10 per cent, New Zealand First on 8 per cent and the centrist Opportunity Party on 6 per cent. Modelling based on those figures put the current governing coalition on 58 seats, three short of a majority in the 120-seat Parliament, with Opportunity holding seven seats and the balance of power.
A second poll told a similar story of stalemate. The Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll, conducted between 28 October and 3 November, put National at 28.9 per cent and Labour at 28.4 per cent, with both blocs projected to win 60 seats each, a hung parliament in the most literal sense. A third survey, the Post-Freshwater Strategy poll, pointed the other way, with Labour ahead on 30.7 per cent and National on 26.4 per cent.
Luxon has ruled out working with the Opportunity Party, citing its proposed land tax as contrary to National’s pledge of no new taxes. That stance leaves National facing a difficult path to a majority if Opportunity clears the five per cent threshold needed to enter Parliament. New Zealand First leader Winston Peters, asked about serving as kingmaker, said Luxon “wouldn’t be the only prime minister I’ve helped form.”
Polls close at 7pm local time, when preliminary results will begin to flow in. More than 1.44 million people had already voted by the end of Wednesday, according to the Electoral Commission. Those early numbers will be incomplete, as they exclude special votes, including ballots cast overseas and by people voting outside their home electorate, which have historically tended to favour the left.
The official results, including special votes, will be released on 27 November. Only then will the parties know the final shape of Parliament, including whether any overhang seats have changed the arithmetic. Luxon, 56, is seeking a second term after leading National to victory in the 2023 election, while Hipkins, 48, is aiming for a historic return, which would be the first time New Zealanders have tipped out a first-term government in more than half a century.
